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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Earnings (Nov 2) inside all horizons — premium not comparable to band.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
3 of 7 models in band
± 2.13% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent trend across 2H/1D/1W.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
AAPL's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±1.4% over 7 days, widening to ±3.3% over 28. Options are currently pricing all three horizons above the band (VRP ≈ 2.29×) — premium screens rich on this scale.
Premium grade: 2026-10-31 05:00 UTC
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 79.2% (77 forecast-days · n_eff=7 independent windows) · CI 43–95% · as of 30 Oct 2026 · n_eff as of 28 Oct 2026 → full record
Across 77 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (7 independent windows), AAPL's expected-range band contained price 79.2% of the time (95% CI 43–95%; stated rate: 80%).
As of October 31, 2026, AAPL is trading at 344.79. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this stock generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is a publicly traded stock covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The AAPL stock closed at 344.79 on October 30, 2026, reflecting a decline of 1.19% from the previous close of 348.94. AAPL is listed on the SIX in Switzerland.
Over the past 30 days, the stock has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 1.74%, ranging between 325.81 and 351.73. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 342.14. The 14-day RSI stands at 55.5, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, ISM Services Employment (US) shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, negatively correlated (r = -0.85).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.01%, reflecting typical price variability for this stock. Over the past 52 weeks, AAPL traded between 243.42 (Jan 20, 2026) and 351.73 (Oct 23, 2026); the current price sits 2.0% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 1.01% is subdued for this stock, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. AAPL is currently trading 0.78% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 55.5, currently in neutral territory. For cross-confirmation, the ISM Services Employment (US) indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with AAPL (r = -0.85) and is worth watching for context.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Challenger Job Cuts (US) (r=+0.82), Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (US) (r=+0.77), Real Disposable Personal Income (US) (r=+0.73), ISM Services Prices (US) (r=+0.71)
Inversely correlated: ISM Services Employment (US) (r=-0.85), BoE Consumer Credit (US) (r=-0.85), Inflation Rate MoM (US) (r=-0.77), Industrial Production MoM (US) (r=-0.73)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets consumer electronics, software, and services worldwide. Core product lines include the iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, and AirPods; services revenue spans the App Store, Apple Music, iCloud, Apple TV+, and Apple Pay. Apple is one of the largest companies by market capitalization and a member of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.
AAPL price action is driven primarily by iPhone unit demand and refresh cycles, Services segment growth (App Store, Apple One subscriptions, Apple Pay), Mac and iPad seasonality, Greater China revenue trends, and broader Nasdaq / tech-sector sentiment. Quarterly earnings surprises and guidance updates are the largest single-day catalysts.