Crypto

Digital-asset markets have entered December on a volatile footing, with total crypto market capitalization retreating to roughly $3 trillion after Bitcoin plunged below $86,000—a 32% drawdown from October's all-time high near $126,000. The selloff, triggered by a confluence of rising Japanese bond yields, a $9 million DeFi exploit at Yearn Finance, and over $1 billion in ETF outflows, has erased all of BTC's 2025 gains and tested investor conviction heading into year-end.

Bitcoin: charts, catalysts, course. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded its worst month in history, shedding $2.34 billion in November—roughly 3% of AUM—though the asset manager downplayed the moves as typical for retail-driven products with nearly $100 billion in peak assets. Despite the bruising outflows, Arthur Hayes remains steadfast in his $200,000–$250,000 year-end target, citing the Fed's imminent end to quantitative tightening and an 87% probability of a December rate cut as tailwinds. Our base case: BTC consolidates between $80,000 and $95,000 near-term, with a break above $100,000 likely requiring sustained ETF inflows and clearer macro support—though the path to six figures before year-end looks increasingly narrow given current momentum.

Last updated: December 01, 2025