Stocks

The global equity story this month reveals a market recalibrating its expectations: AI infrastructure winners are consolidating dominance while questions mount over whether the unprecedented capex wave will translate into sustainable returns for all players.

NVIDIA continues to reign as the world's most valuable company at approximately $4.5 trillion, though its stock has pulled back roughly 8% from its October 2025 peak near $5 trillion amid profit-taking and capacity constraints. Alphabet has emerged as the surprise leader of 2025, surging 65% for the year and overtaking Apple as the world's second-most valuable company, now trading near $4 trillion as its Gemini 3 AI model outperformed rivals on benchmark tests. Apple—which briefly touched $4 trillion in October—has settled around $3.8 trillion, buoyed by record iPhone 17 demand that drove Apple to overtake Samsung as the world's largest smartphone brand for the first time in 14 years. Microsoft maintains its position near $3.6 trillion after Azure revenue surpassed $75 billion annually, up 34%, with Q4 growth accelerating to 39% year-over-year.

Amazon's stock surged following Q3 results as AWS growth accelerated to 20.2%—a pace it hadn't seen since 2022—with the company raising its 2025 capex forecast to $125 billion and signaling even higher spending in 2026. Yet the infrastructure arms race is creating clear winners and losers. The Big Five hyperscalers will spend over $600 billion on infrastructure in 2026—a 36% increase from 2025—with roughly 75% targeting AI capacity. Meta's stock has consolidated near $650 after a post-earnings selloff, as investors weigh 2025 capex guidance of $70-72 billion against unclear monetization timelines, with CFO Susan Li warning that spending will accelerate further in 2026.

Tesla gained roughly 25% in 2025 even as its core EV business deteriorated sharply. Annual deliveries fell 8.6% to 1.6 million vehicles—the steepest annual decline in company history—with European sales dropping 28% and Germany down 48%. Trading at a forward P/E above 300, Tesla's valuation reflects a high-risk bet on robotaxis and Optimus robots rather than its struggling automotive business. The company's robotaxi service remains confined to Austin and San Francisco with safety monitors required, while Cybercab commercial production is planned to begin in April 2026. With BYD now firmly the global EV leader and analysts warning that Musk's promises remain far from delivery, 2026 shapes up as a reckoning year for whether Tesla's AI narrative can survive contact with operational reality.

Last updated: January 18, 2026