Latest updates

Germany’s November 2025 CPI contracted by -0.20%, matching estimates but reversing October’s 0.30% increase, signaling a rare deflationary month. This decline points to easing price pressures after several months of inflation above the ECB’s 2% target, suggesting a cooling economy. Markets now anticipate a potential pause or slowdown in ECB rate hikes as inflation momentum weakens. Updated 12/12/25

The UK Goods Trade Balance for November 2025 showed a wider deficit of -22.54 billion GBP, missing the estimate of -19.30 billion and reversing October’s -18.88 billion reading. This sharp deterioration signals increased external pressures and a contraction in trade performance compared to the prior month. Looking ahead, the persistent deficit may prompt the Bank of England to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance amid inflation concerns and subdued export demand. Updated 12/12/25

The UK Goods Trade Balance Non-EU for November 2025 posted a deficit of -10.26 billion GBP, sharply missing the -6.60 billion estimate and worsening from October’s -6.82 billion. This 50.60% month-over-month increase signals a significant contraction in trade balance health, marking the largest deficit since August 2025. Looking ahead, persistent import cost inflation and geopolitical risks suggest continued pressure on sterling and export sectors, with monetary tightening likely to constrain near-term recovery. Updated 12/12/25

The UK Gross Domestic Product MoM for November 2025 contracted by -0.10%, missing the 0.10% growth estimate and matching October’s decline. This second consecutive monthly contraction signals ongoing economic softness amid tightening financial conditions and external uncertainties. Looking ahead, the Bank of England’s rate hikes and subdued demand suggest continued pressure on growth, with markets likely to remain cautious. Updated 12/12/25

The US Jobless Claims 4-Week Average for November 2025 came in at 216.75K, slightly below the estimate of 218.00K and up 0.93% from October’s 214.75K reading. This modest increase signals a stable labor market with early signs of softening, remaining below the 12-month average of approximately 230K. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s patient stance on monetary policy suggests cautious monitoring as seasonal factors and sector-specific layoffs could influence near-term labor dynamics. Updated 12/11/25

US Initial Jobless Claims for November 2025 unexpectedly rose to 236,000, surpassing the 220,000 estimate and sharply increasing from October’s 192,000. This 22.90% month-over-month jump signals a potential softening in the labor market after months of improvement. The rise may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain cautious tightening amid growing economic uncertainties. Updated 12/11/25

US Continuing Jobless Claims for November 2025 came in at 1838.00K, beating the estimate of 1950.00K and falling sharply from October’s 1937.00K. This 5.10% month-over-month decline signals improving labor market resilience despite ongoing monetary tightening. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations of steady employment growth and may temper Federal Reserve rate hike prospects. Updated 12/11/25

Switzerland’s SNB Interest Rate Decision for November 2025 surprised markets by holding the policy rate steady at 0.00%, matching both the estimate and October’s reading. This unchanged rate signals continued monetary accommodation amid stable inflation easing slightly to 1.10% YoY and moderate GDP growth of 0.40% QoQ, supporting economic expansion. Looking ahead, the SNB is expected to maintain its zero-rate stance with cautious flexibility as geopolitical risks and subdued inflation shape policy decisions. Updated 12/11/25

Australia’s Unemployment Rate for November 2025 came in at 4.30%, matching October’s 4.30% and slightly beating the 4.40% consensus estimate. The unchanged rate from the prior month signals a stable labor market after October’s peak of 4.50%, indicating neither expansion nor contraction in employment conditions. This steady reading supports the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cautious pause on rate hikes, with markets expecting a data-dependent approach amid moderate wage growth and external risks. Updated 12/11/25

Australia’s Employment Change for November 2025 unexpectedly contracted by -21.30K, missing the estimate of 20.00K and reversing October’s strong gain of 42.20K. This sharp decline signals a sudden cooling in the labor market after months of expansion, highlighting increased volatility and potential headwinds for economic growth. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia may delay further rate hikes as markets price in slower momentum amid tightening financial conditions. Updated 12/11/25

The US Fed Interest Rate Decision for November 2025 surprised markets with a cut to 3.75%, matching estimates but down from October’s 4.00%, signaling a shift from tightening to a more accommodative stance. This 25 basis point reduction reflects easing inflation pressures and stable labor market conditions, supporting moderate economic expansion. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to pause further hikes as inflation trends downward, while markets price in a 60% chance of additional cuts in 2026. Updated 12/10/25

Canada’s BoC Interest Rate Decision for December 2025 held steady at 2.25%, matching expectations and unchanged from October’s 2.25%. This fourth consecutive hold signals a cautious stance amid easing inflation and slowing growth, with core CPI down to 3.10% in November from 3.30% in October. Looking ahead, the BoC is likely to maintain this steady rate through Q1 2026, balancing inflation risks against external uncertainties. Updated 12/10/25

China’s Inflation Rate YoY for November 2025 matched expectations at 0.70%, rising sharply from October’s 0.20%. This rebound reverses prior negative inflation trends and signals a moderate expansion in price pressures. Looking ahead, the steady inflation supports continued accommodative monetary policy while markets price in gradual normalization. Updated 12/10/25

US JOLTs Job Openings for November 2025 came in at 7.66 million, beating the consensus estimate of 7.20 million and rising from October’s 7.23 million. This 6.00% month-over-month increase signals sustained labor demand and a resilient job market despite tightening monetary policy. Looking ahead, persistent openings may keep wage pressures elevated, complicating the Federal Reserve’s inflation control efforts. Updated 12/9/25

Germany’s Balance of Trade for November 2025 surprised with a €16.90 billion surplus, beating estimates of €15.20 billion and rising 10.50% from October’s €15.30 billion, signaling continued export strength. This improvement above the recent average reflects resilience in key sectors like automotive and machinery amid global uncertainties. Looking ahead, the robust surplus supports the ECB’s cautious tightening stance and may bolster eurozone growth despite geopolitical risks. Updated 12/9/25

Australia’s Interest Rate Decision for November 2025 matched expectations, holding steady at 3.60% from October’s 3.60%. This marks the fourth consecutive month without change, signaling a cautious pause amid easing inflation and stable employment. Looking ahead, the RBA is likely to maintain this patient stance into 2026, balancing external risks and moderate growth. Updated 12/9/25

Australia’s RBA Interest Rate Decision for November 2025 held steady at 3.60%, matching expectations and unchanged from October 2025’s 3.60%. This marks the fourth consecutive month without adjustment, signaling a cautious pause amid easing inflation and resilient labor markets. Looking ahead, the RBA remains data-dependent, with market-implied rate hike probabilities subdued, reflecting a balanced approach amid global uncertainties. Updated 12/9/25

Australia’s NAB Business Confidence for November 2025 fell sharply to 1, down from October’s 6, signaling a marked loss of business optimism. This steep decline from 6 to 1 indicates a significant cooling in sentiment amid tightening monetary policy and geopolitical risks, pointing to subdued investment and hiring intentions. Looking ahead, the data suggests cautious corporate behavior with downside risks to growth, likely influencing RBA policy and market sentiment in early 2026. Updated 12/9/25

The UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY for November 2025 came in at 1.20%, missing the 2.40% estimate and down from October’s 1.50%, signaling a continued slowdown in retail growth. This decline below the 50% expansion threshold reflects mounting consumer caution amid tighter financial conditions and persistent inflation pressures. Looking ahead, the Bank of England may pause rate hikes as subdued retail sales temper economic momentum, with market sentiment likely to remain cautious. Updated 12/9/25

China’s Exports YoY in December 2025 surged to 5.70%, beating the 3.80% estimate and rebounding sharply from November’s 1.10%. This 4.60 percentage point increase signals a strong expansion in export activity, reflecting improved external demand and easing supply chain constraints. Looking ahead, continued policy support and stable global demand should sustain momentum, though geopolitical risks warrant close monitoring. Updated 12/8/25

China’s Balance of Trade for December 2025 surprised with a robust surplus of 111.68 billion CNY, beating estimates of 100.20 billion and rising 23.90% from November’s 90.07 billion, signaling strong external sector expansion. This rebound surpasses the 12-month average of 104.40 billion CNY, reflecting resilient export growth amid global uncertainties. Looking ahead, cautious monetary policy and geopolitical risks suggest continued volatility, but trade-driven growth and yuan stability remain likely. Updated 12/8/25

China’s Imports YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.90%, missing the 2.80% estimate but improving from November’s 1.00%. This 0.90 percentage point increase signals a modest expansion in import demand, reflecting a tentative recovery after earlier contractions in 2025. Looking ahead, continued monetary easing and fiscal stimulus are expected to support trade, though geopolitical risks and global supply chain issues may temper growth. Updated 12/8/25

Japan’s Gross Domestic Product QoQ contracted by -0.20%, matching consensus but improving from the previous -0.40%. This 0.20 percentage point easing signals a continued fragile contraction rather than expansion. Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its accommodative policy amid subdued inflation, while markets remain cautious amid structural and external risks. Updated 12/8/25

The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside at 53.30, beating the 52.00 estimate and rising 2.30 points from November’s 51.00, signaling tentative expansion above the 50 threshold. This marks the first increase after a prolonged decline, suggesting consumers are cautiously adapting amid persistent inflation and monetary tightening concerns. Looking ahead, the modest rebound may temper expectations for aggressive Fed hikes but underscores ongoing risks to consumer spending and economic growth in early 2026. Updated 12/5/25

The US Core PCE price index MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.20%, exactly matching consensus and the previous month’s reading. This steady 0.20% pace signals a stable inflation environment, consistent with moderate expansion in price pressures. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance, monitoring inflation closely before adjusting rates further. Updated 12/5/25

The US Core PCE Price Index YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.80%, missing the 2.90% consensus and previous reading. This 0.10 percentage point decline signals a mild easing in inflation pressures, though the level remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, indicating ongoing expansionary inflation dynamics. Market expectations now lean toward a cautious Fed stance, balancing inflation containment with growth concerns. Updated 12/5/25

The US Personal Income MoM for December 2025 came in at 0.40%, matching November’s pace and beating the consensus estimate of 0.30%. This steady 0.40% increase signals ongoing expansion in personal income, consistent with a resilient labor market and sustained fiscal support. Looking ahead, the data supports a cautiously optimistic outlook for consumer spending despite inflation and monetary tightening risks. Updated 12/5/25

The US Personal Spending MoM for November 2025 rose by 0.30%, matching consensus but down from October’s 0.50% gain, signaling moderate expansion. This slowdown from the previous month reflects steady consumer demand amid tighter financial conditions, consistent with a stable economic environment. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policy stance as spending growth remains resilient but cautious. Updated 12/5/25

California’s December 2025 Unemployment Rate came in at 6.50%, beating the 7.00% estimate and dropping from 6.90% last month, signaling labor market expansion. This 0.40 percentage point decline marks the lowest rate since early 2025 and reflects strengthening employment conditions despite tightening monetary policy. Looking ahead, this improvement may temper the Bank of Canada’s rate hike pace while markets anticipate continued resilience amid external risks. Updated 12/5/25

Canada’s Employment Change for December 2025 came in at 53.60K, beating the consensus estimate of -5.00K but below November’s 66.60K. This 13K decline from the previous month still signals labor market expansion, reflecting resilience amid monetary tightening and global uncertainties. Looking ahead, steady job gains may sustain wage pressures, influencing the Bank of Canada’s cautious policy stance. Updated 12/5/25

The EU Employment Change QoQ for December 2025 came in at 0.20%, doubling the previous 0.10% and beating the 0.10% consensus estimate. This acceleration signals expansion in the labor market, reflecting resilience despite tightening monetary policy and external uncertainties. Looking ahead, the stronger employment growth may prompt the ECB to maintain a hawkish stance, influencing market expectations and sectoral hiring trends. Updated 12/5/25

The EU Employment Change YoY for December 2025 came in at 0.60%, beating the consensus estimate of 0.50% and matching the previous month’s figure. This steady reading signals continued labor market expansion, holding above contraction territory and reflecting resilience amid tightening monetary conditions. Looking ahead, this stability supports expectations for cautious ECB policy normalization and sustained market confidence. Updated 12/5/25

Italy’s Retail Sales MoM for December 2025 surprised with a 0.50% gain, beating the 0.40% estimate and reversing November’s -0.50% decline. This rebound signals expansion in consumer spending after recent contraction, highlighting improved household demand amid easing inflation. Looking ahead, sustained retail momentum could support Italy’s growth and reinforce the ECB’s current policy pause, though geopolitical risks remain a concern. Updated 12/5/25

Italy’s Retail Sales YoY rose 1.30% in December 2025, beating the 1.10% estimate and improving from November’s 0.50%. This growth signals a moderate expansion in consumer spending after volatile months earlier in 2025, reflecting resilience despite tighter monetary policy. Looking ahead, steady fiscal support and easing inflation may sustain this momentum, though geopolitical risks and inflation pressures warrant close monitoring. Updated 12/5/25

Canada’s Ivey PMI s.a for December 2025 missed expectations sharply, coming in at 48.40 versus the 53.60 consensus. This 4.00-point drop from November’s 52.40 signals a contraction in manufacturing activity, the first since June, highlighting mounting economic headwinds. The decline pressures the Bank of Canada to reconsider its tightening stance amid slowing growth and market volatility. Updated 12/4/25

EU Retail Sales MoM for November 2025 came in at 0.00%, missing the 0.10% consensus and matching October’s 0.10% gain. This flat reading signals stagnation following a 0.10% increase last month, indicating no expansion in consumer spending amid ongoing inflation and tighter financial conditions. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain its restrictive policy stance as subdued retail momentum limits near-term growth prospects. Updated 12/4/25

EU Retail Sales YoY for December 2025 came in at 1.50%, beating the 1.40% consensus and rising from November’s 1.20%, signaling moderate expansion in consumer spending. This rebound from October’s 1.00% low confirms resilience despite ongoing inflation and restrictive ECB policy. Looking ahead, retail sales growth will remain a key indicator for monetary policy adjustments and market sentiment amid inflation and geopolitical risks. Updated 12/4/25

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 came in at 3.40%, exactly matching November’s reading and defying expectations of a decline. This unchanged figure from the previous 3.40% signals persistent inflationary pressures above the Bank of England’s 2% target, indicating ongoing cost expansion. Looking ahead, the BoE is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance, with limited rate hikes unless inflation accelerates further. Updated 12/4/25

Switzerland’s procure.ch Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 surprised markets by rising to 49.70, beating the estimate of 48.50 and improving from November’s 48.20. Although still below the 50 expansion threshold, the 1.50-point increase signals a slowing contraction and tentative stabilization in manufacturing activity. Looking ahead, this momentum may ease pressure on the Swiss National Bank to tighten policy further, supporting cautious optimism for industrial growth. Updated 12/4/25

Switzerland’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 matched expectations at 2.90%, unchanged from the previous month’s 2.90%. This stability signals a balanced labor market after a slight rise from the August low of 2.70%, reflecting neither expansion nor contraction. Looking ahead, the Swiss National Bank is likely to maintain its cautious monetary stance amid steady inflation and external uncertainties. Updated 12/4/25

Australia’s Balance of Trade for November 2025 surprised with a surplus of AUD 4.38 billion, beating the estimate of AUD 4.20 billion and rising from October’s AUD 3.94 billion. This 11.40% increase signals continued external sector strength despite a moderation from the September peak of AUD 7.31 billion. Looking ahead, the RBA’s steady interest rate policy and resilient commodity exports should support the AUD and economic stability amid global uncertainties. Updated 12/4/25

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 52.60, beating the consensus estimate of 52.00 and signaling continued expansion in the service sector. This marks a slight increase from November’s 52.40, reinforcing steady growth above the 50 threshold. Looking ahead, the resilient services momentum supports expectations for the Fed to maintain its current policy stance amid moderate economic expansion. Updated 12/3/25

The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for December 2025 came in at 65.40, missing the consensus estimate of 68.00 and falling sharply from November’s 70.00. This 4.60-point decline signals a cooling of inflationary pressures in the services sector, though the reading remains well above the 50 expansion threshold. Looking ahead, this moderation may ease Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and support a more balanced market outlook into 2026. Updated 12/3/25

The US ISM Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 52.60, beating the consensus estimate of 52.10 and rising from November’s 52.40, signaling continued expansion in the services sector. This modest increase above the 50 threshold reflects steady growth despite monetary tightening and geopolitical risks. Looking ahead, the Fed is likely to maintain a data-dependent approach, with markets watching for inflation and employment trends that could influence policy decisions. Updated 12/3/25

The US ADP Employment Change for December 2025 reported an unexpected contraction of -32,000 jobs, missing the consensus estimate of +10,000. This marks a sharp reversal from November’s +42,000 gain, signaling a cooling labor market with increased volatility. Looking ahead, this decline may temper Federal Reserve rate hike expectations and heighten market caution on growth prospects. Updated 12/3/25

Germany’s HCOB Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 52.70, missing the consensus estimate of 53.80 and down from November’s 54.60. This 1.90-point decline still signals expansion but at a notably slower pace compared to recent months. Looking ahead, the moderation suggests the ECB may hold rates steady as the services sector faces external risks and subdued growth momentum. Updated 12/3/25

France’s HCOB Services PMI for December 2025 surprised on the upside, reaching 50.80 versus the 48.70 consensus estimate. This 2.80-point increase from November’s 48.00 marks a return to expansion in the services sector after a prolonged contraction phase. The rebound may ease pressure on the ECB to raise rates further, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for France’s economic growth in 2026. Updated 12/3/25

Italy’s HCOB Services PMI for December came in at 55.00, beating the consensus estimate of 54.40 and marking the highest reading in 10 months. This represents a 1.00-point increase from November’s 54.00, signaling continued robust expansion in the service sector. Looking ahead, the strong PMI supports the ECB’s neutral policy stance, though geopolitical risks and fiscal constraints may temper growth momentum. Updated 12/3/25

Spain’s HCOB Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 55.60, slightly missing the consensus estimate of 56.00 and down from November’s 56.60, yet still signaling solid expansion. The 1.00-point decline from the previous month suggests a modest moderation in service sector growth but maintains momentum above the 50 threshold. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious monetary stance amid persistent inflation, while markets may brace for continued volatility given geopolitical and financial headwinds. Updated 12/3/25

China’s Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 52.10, missing the estimate of 51.90 and down from November’s 52.60, signaling a slower but still positive expansion in the sector. The 0.50-point decline reflects moderating domestic demand amid global uncertainties, with the index remaining above the 50 threshold for growth. Looking ahead, policymakers are expected to maintain accommodative monetary and fiscal measures to support a cautious recovery. Updated 12/3/25

Australia’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ for Q4 2025 came in at 0.40%, missing the 0.70% consensus and below the prior 0.60%. This 0.20 percentage point decline still signals expansion but at a slower pace, reflecting ongoing headwinds from monetary tightening and external uncertainties. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance as markets price in balanced risks amid moderate growth. Updated 12/3/25

Australia’s S&P Global Services PMI for December 2025 came in at 52.80, slightly beating the consensus estimate of 52.70 and rising from 52.50 in November. This 0.30-point increase confirms ongoing expansion in the services sector, maintaining momentum above the 50 threshold for the 18th consecutive month. Looking ahead, the steady PMI supports expectations of moderate growth and a balanced Reserve Bank of Australia policy stance amid easing inflation pressures. Updated 12/2/25

GR’s December 2025 Unemployment Rate came in at 8.60%, missing the 8.30% estimate but improving from the previous 8.70%. This modest decline signals a tentative stabilization in the labor market, though the rate remains elevated above the 12-month average, indicating ongoing structural challenges. Looking ahead, cautious ECB policy and targeted fiscal measures will be critical to support employment gains amid external risks. Updated 12/2/25

The EU December 2025 CPI came in at 129.34, slightly below the consensus estimate of 129.40, marking a modest miss. This represents a 0.28% decline from November’s 129.70, signaling a tentative easing in inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, the ECB is expected to maintain a cautious tightening stance, balancing persistent core inflation against this recent moderation. Updated 12/2/25

The EU Unemployment Rate for December 2025 came in at 6.40%, matching the previous month but slightly missing the 6.30% estimate, signaling a stable yet stagnant labor market. This unchanged reading from November indicates neither expansion nor contraction, reflecting ongoing challenges amid tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, policymakers face pressure to balance inflation control with growth support as external risks and fiscal constraints may limit employment gains. Updated 12/2/25

The EU Inflation Rate YoY for December 2025 came in at 2.20%, beating the consensus estimate of 2.10% and rising from the previous 2.10%. This 0.10 percentage point increase signals a modest expansion in inflationary pressures above the ECB’s 2% target. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious monetary stance amid persistent external risks and steady core inflation. Updated 12/2/25

Italy’s Unemployment Rate for December 2025 came in at 6.00%, beating the consensus estimate of 6.10% and improving from 6.20% in November. This 0.20 percentage point decline signals a modest contraction in unemployment, reflecting stabilization after summer peaks and ongoing labor market resilience. Looking ahead, steady ECB policy and fiscal support are expected to sustain this positive trend, though structural challenges and external risks warrant close monitoring. Updated 12/2/25

The EU HCOB Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 49.70, missing the consensus estimate of 50.90 and signaling contraction. This is a decline from November’s 50.00 reading, marking the third sub-50 print in four months and highlighting ongoing sector weakness. Looking ahead, persistent restrictive ECB policy and subdued demand suggest cautious market sentiment, with structural shifts toward green tech shaping long-term resilience. Updated 12/2/25

ES Employment Change for December 2025 surprised to the downside with an actual decline of -18.80K jobs, missing the estimate of -12.40K and reversing sharply from November’s 22.10K gain. This marks a significant contraction after a prior expansion, signaling emerging weakness in the labor market amid tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, policymakers may pause rate hikes as markets digest this volatility, while investors brace for continued economic uncertainty. Updated 12/2/25

Japan’s Consumer Confidence for December 2025 surprised to the upside at 37.50, beating the estimate of 35.90 and rising from the previous 35.80. This 1.70-point increase signals continued contraction but a clear improvement in household sentiment after mid-year lows. Looking ahead, the BoJ’s accommodative policy and stable inflation should support moderate consumption growth, while markets remain watchful of external risks and fiscal constraints. Updated 12/2/25

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 48.20, missing the consensus estimate of 48.60 and falling from November’s 48.70. This 0.50-point decline confirms ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, as the index remains below the 50 expansion threshold for the fourth consecutive month. Looking ahead, persistent weakness amid tight Fed policy suggests continued caution in industrial investment and heightened market volatility. Updated 12/1/25

The US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 surprised slightly by beating estimates with an actual reading of 52.20 versus the 51.90 forecast. This marks a modest decline from November’s 52.50 but still signals ongoing expansion above the 50 threshold, reflecting steady manufacturing resilience. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious tightening stance while markets remain watchful for inflation and geopolitical risks. Updated 12/1/25

Canada’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December came in at 48.40, missing the 50.40 consensus and down from November’s 49.60, signaling continued contraction. This 1.20-point decline marks the third consecutive month below 50, reflecting persistent weakness in manufacturing activity amid subdued demand and inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain a cautious monetary stance as structural shifts toward advanced manufacturing and green technology offer potential support. Updated 12/1/25

The UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 surprised markets by rising to 50.20, beating the consensus estimate of 49.30 and surpassing November’s 49.70. This 0.50-point increase marks a shift into expansion territory after several months of contraction, signaling tentative recovery in manufacturing activity. Looking ahead, the Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance as inflation remains above target, with market sentiment reflecting cautious optimism. Updated 12/1/25

Greece’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December came in at 52.70, missing the consensus estimate of 54.00 and down from November’s 53.50. This 0.80-point decline still signals expansion but at a slower pace, reflecting cooling momentum in the manufacturing sector. Looking ahead, tighter ECB monetary policy and subdued export demand may continue to weigh on growth, warranting close monitoring of upcoming PMI releases. Updated 12/1/25

Germany’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI for December came in at 48.40, missing the 50.10 consensus and signaling a deeper contraction than expected. This marks a 1.20-point decline from November’s 49.60, extending the manufacturing sector’s contraction for the third consecutive month. The persistent weakness suggests limited scope for ECB easing soon, with markets likely to remain cautious amid ongoing supply chain and geopolitical risks. Updated 12/1/25

France’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 47.80, missing the 49.30 consensus and falling from November’s 48.30, signaling continued contraction in the sector. The 0.50 point decline confirms persistent weakness amid subdued demand and supply chain pressures, with the PMI remaining below the 50 expansion threshold. Looking ahead, the ECB may pause rate hikes as fiscal support and easing financial conditions aim to stabilize manufacturing growth in 2026. Updated 12/1/25

Italy’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI for December came in at 50.60, slightly beating the consensus estimate of 50.50 and marking the first expansion reading since November’s 49.90. This 0.70-point increase signals a tentative stabilization in the manufacturing sector after months of contraction below 50. Looking ahead, the modest rebound may encourage cautious optimism among policymakers and investors, though risks from inflation and geopolitical tensions persist. Updated 12/1/25

Spain’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 51.50, missing the 52.30 consensus and down from November’s 52.10, signaling a slower but still positive expansion. The 0.60-point decline confirms moderate growth above the 50 threshold, reflecting ongoing sector resilience amid tightening financial conditions. Looking ahead, cautious ECB policy and external uncertainties suggest the manufacturing momentum may remain subdued in the near term. Updated 12/1/25

Austria’s December 2025 Unemployment Rate came in at 7.20%, matching November’s figure and beating the 7.40% estimate. The rate remained unchanged from the previous month, signaling a stable labor market amid ongoing structural challenges. Looking ahead, the ECB is expected to maintain a cautious monetary policy while fiscal efforts focus on targeted labor support to navigate external risks. Updated 12/1/25

Switzerland’s Retail Sales MoM surged 0.70%, well above the 0.10% estimate and up from November’s 0.50%, signaling clear expansion in consumer spending. This 0.20 percentage point increase reflects resilient demand despite ongoing monetary tightening and geopolitical uncertainties. Looking ahead, sustained retail strength may support cautious optimism for growth, though external risks and fiscal constraints warrant close monitoring. Updated 12/1/25

Switzerland’s Retail Sales YoY surged to 2.70%, beating the 1.20% estimate and rising sharply from the previous 1.80%, signaling clear expansion in consumer spending. This jump from 1.80% to 2.70% marks a robust rebound after volatile swings earlier in 2025, confirming resilient demand despite monetary tightening. Looking ahead, sustained consumer strength may prompt the Swiss National Bank to maintain or tighten policy, while markets weigh inflation risks against economic momentum. Updated 12/1/25

China’s Manufacturing PMI for December 2025 came in at 49.20, missing the consensus estimate of 50.40 and signaling continued contraction. This marks a slight increase from November’s 49.00 but remains below the 50 threshold, indicating persistent weakness in industrial activity. Looking ahead, sustained monetary easing and targeted fiscal support will be crucial to counter external risks and stimulate a recovery in manufacturing. Updated 12/1/25

China’s December Caixin Manufacturing PMI missed expectations, registering 49.90 versus the 50.50 forecast, signaling contraction for the first time since June. This 0.70-point decline from November’s 50.60 reading marks a clear cooling in factory activity amid persistent global and domestic challenges. Policymakers are likely to maintain accommodative measures to support manufacturing recovery, with market participants watching for stabilization in external demand. Updated 12/1/25

Australia’s S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 matched expectations at 51.60, rebounding sharply from October’s 49.70 and signaling renewed expansion in the manufacturing sector. This 1.90-point increase marks a clear recovery after two months of contraction, aligning with the 12-month average of 51.40 and reflecting stronger new orders and output growth. Looking ahead, the PMI’s rise supports a stable monetary policy outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while markets anticipate sustained sector momentum amid easing input costs. Updated 11/30/25

China’s November 2025 NBS Manufacturing PMI matched expectations at 49.20, slightly improving from October’s 49.00 but still signaling contraction below the 50 threshold. This modest 0.20-point rise marks the third consecutive month of manufacturing decline, indicating ongoing sector weakness amid subdued demand and supply chain frictions. Looking ahead, sustained monetary easing and fiscal stimulus will be crucial to support stabilization and potential recovery in 2026. Updated 11/30/25

China’s November 2025 NBS Non Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.50, missing the consensus estimate of 50.00 and marking the first contraction since July 2024. This 0.60-point decline from October’s 50.10 reading signals a shift to contraction in the non-manufacturing sector, reflecting weakening services and construction activity. Market focus will remain on potential targeted monetary easing and fiscal measures as policymakers balance growth support against rising financial risks. Updated 11/30/25

Canada’s GDP Growth Rate QoQ contracted by -0.40%, missing the 0.20% consensus and reversing the prior 0.50% expansion. This 0.90 percentage point decline signals a clear contraction, the first since late 2023, highlighting renewed economic headwinds. Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada may adopt a more dovish stance as markets price in potential rate pauses or cuts amid persistent external risks. Updated 8/29/25

Canada’s GDP Growth Annualized for August 2025 came in at -1.60%, missing the estimate of -0.60% but improving from the previous -2.00%. This contraction, while still below zero, signals a partial easing of economic decline compared to July’s sharper drop. Looking ahead, the Bank of Canada may maintain cautious monetary policy as markets brace for continued volatility amid external headwinds. Updated 8/29/25

Germany’s Inflation Rate YoY for November 2025 came in at 2.30%, matching consensus but slightly below October’s 2.40%, signaling a mild easing in inflationary pressures. This contraction from the previous reading suggests inflation is stabilizing above the ECB’s 2% target, maintaining moderate price pressures in the economy. Looking ahead, the Bundesbank and ECB are likely to hold policy steady amid cautious optimism, with markets pricing in gradual disinflation risks through 2026. Updated 11/13/25

India’s GDP Growth Rate YoY for August 2025 came in at 7.80%, beating the consensus estimate of 6.60% and rising from 7.40% in May. This 0.40 percentage point increase signals strong economic expansion, supported by robust domestic demand and investment activity. Looking ahead, the RBI is likely to maintain its accommodative stance as inflation moderates, while markets remain optimistic amid ongoing structural reforms. Updated 8/29/25

Greece’s Retail Sales YoY for October 2025 came in at 3.90%, slightly below the 4.00% estimate but well above September’s 2.10%, signaling continued expansion in consumer spending. This improvement from the previous month reflects resilient demand despite monetary tightening and external uncertainties, with the reading comfortably above the 12-month average of 1.90%. Looking ahead, sustained moderate growth is expected as fiscal support and easing supply constraints offset tightening financial conditions. Updated 11/1/25

Italy’s Inflation Rate YoY for November 2025 matched expectations at 1.20%, down from 1.60% in October, confirming a notable easing in price pressures. This 0.40 percentage point decline signals a moderation phase, consistent with subdued wage growth and stable energy costs. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain its cautious accommodative stance as markets digest the steady inflation trajectory amid geopolitical uncertainties. Updated 11/17/25

Germany’s Baden Wuerttemberg CPI MoM for October 2025 surprised with an actual increase of 0.30%, up from 0.20% in September, signaling a moderate inflation expansion. This 0.10 percentage point rise above the previous reading confirms persistent inflationary pressures above the 12-month average of 0.21%, driven mainly by energy and shelter costs. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious tightening stance as markets weigh ongoing geopolitical risks and inflation resilience. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Baden Wuerttemberg CPI YoY for October 2025 came in at 2.30%, missing the prior month’s 2.70% and signaling a notable deceleration in inflation. This 0.40 percentage point decline interrupts the recent upward trend, indicating a cooling inflation environment but still above the ECB’s 2% target, suggesting moderate expansionary pressures. Looking ahead, this moderation supports a cautious ECB stance with potential delays in rate hikes, while markets remain alert to geopolitical risks and fiscal policy impacts. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Bavaria CPI MoM for October 2025 came in at 0.30%, slightly missing the previous month’s 0.40% but maintaining steady inflation momentum. This 0.10 percentage point deceleration signals a moderate expansion in price pressures, consistent with a stable inflation environment above the ECB’s 0.20% monthly target pace. Looking ahead, the data supports a cautious ECB stance with markets expecting gradual policy adjustments amid ongoing energy and wage risks. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Bavaria CPI YoY for October 2025 came in at 2.20%, missing the prior month’s 2.40% and signaling a moderation in inflation pressures. This 0.20 percentage point decline reverses recent upward trends and suggests a stabilizing inflation environment above the ECB’s 2% target. Looking ahead, the Bundesbank is likely to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance as external risks and persistent shelter costs continue to influence inflation dynamics. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Brandenburg CPI MoM for October 2025 surprised with a sharp rise to 0.40%, quadrupling September’s 0.10% reading and signaling clear inflationary expansion. This marks the strongest monthly increase in over a year, reflecting broad-based price pressures from energy, food, and shelter costs. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to consider further tightening at its December meeting, with markets pricing in higher yields and increased volatility. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Brandenburg CPI YoY for October 2025 held steady at 2.60%, matching September’s figure and slightly exceeding mid-year averages, signaling persistent inflationary pressure. The unchanged 2.60% reading from 2.20% in mid-2025 confirms ongoing expansion in price levels above the ECB’s 2% target. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious policy stance as structural inflation drivers and external risks continue to influence the region. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Hesse CPI YoY for October 2025 came in at 2.40%, missing the prior month’s 2.60% and signaling a mild easing in inflation pressures. This 0.20 percentage point decline aligns with the 12-month average, indicating a stable inflation environment rather than expansion or contraction. Looking ahead, the Bundesbank and ECB are likely to maintain a cautious monetary stance, balancing inflation risks with growth concerns amid geopolitical uncertainties. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s North Rhine Westphalia CPI YoY came in at 2.30%, surprising with a rise from the previous 2.00%, signaling an expansion in inflationary pressures. This 0.30 percentage point increase confirms persistent price growth above the ECB’s 2% target, reflecting ongoing cost pressures in energy and services. Looking ahead, the data supports expectations of continued ECB vigilance and potential further monetary tightening to anchor inflation. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Saxony CPI MoM rose 0.30%, surpassing September’s 0.20% and signaling an acceleration in inflation momentum. This increase from 0.20% to 0.30% MoM indicates expansion in price pressures, above the 12-month average of 0.15%. Looking ahead, the ECB is likely to maintain a cautious tightening stance as markets price in persistent inflation risks amid energy and supply chain factors. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Saxony CPI YoY for October 2025 came in at 2.10%, slightly below September’s 2.20%, signaling a modest easing in inflation pressures. This 0.10 percentage point decline suggests a gradual cooling trend but still reflects expansionary inflation dynamics above the ECB’s 2% target. Looking ahead, the data supports the ECB’s cautious stance with no immediate rate hikes expected, while markets remain attentive to energy price volatility and wage growth risks. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s Hesse CPI MoM for October 2025 rose to 0.30%, beating the previous 0.20% and signaling accelerating inflation pressures. This 0.10 percentage point increase marks a clear expansion in monthly inflation momentum after near-zero readings in prior months. The persistent rise supports expectations for the ECB to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance amid ongoing energy and shelter cost pressures. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s North Rhine Westphalia CPI MoM for October 2025 surprised with a 0.40% rise, doubling September’s 0.20% and signaling renewed inflationary expansion. This acceleration above the 12-month average of 0.35% highlights persistent inflation pressures in the region. Market expectations now lean toward sustained ECB vigilance, with potential rate adjustments if inflation remains elevated. Updated 11/1/25

Germany’s November 2025 Consumer Confidence reading matched expectations at -23.20, improving from October’s -24.10 and signaling continued contraction below the neutral 50 threshold. The 0.90-point increase suggests tentative stabilization amid persistent economic headwinds, though sentiment remains fragile. Looking ahead, cautious consumer behavior may temper ECB policy moves and keep market volatility elevated. Updated 11/27/25

New Zealand’s Retail Sales QoQ surged 1.90%, sharply beating the 0.60% estimate and prior 0.70% reading. This 1.20 percentage point increase signals strong expansion in consumer spending, the highest quarterly gain since early 2025. Looking ahead, the robust data may delay further RBNZ rate hikes while supporting NZD strength amid cautious optimism on inflation and global risks. Updated 11/26/25

New Zealand’s Retail Sales YoY surged to 4.50%, well above the 1.80% estimate and prior 2.30%, marking a strong expansion in consumer spending. This 2.20 percentage point increase from the previous reading signals robust demand despite monetary tightening. Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may maintain or accelerate rate hikes as markets price in sustained inflationary pressures. Updated 11/26/25

US Durable Goods Orders MoM rose 0.50%, beating the 0.30% estimate but down sharply from October’s 3.00% gain. This modest increase signals continued expansion in manufacturing demand, though at a slower pace than previous months. Looking ahead, the data supports cautious optimism for industrial resilience amid tighter Fed policy and geopolitical risks. Updated 11/26/25

Austria’s Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 surprised markets by rising to 50.40, beating the estimate of 49.50 and the previous 48.80 reading. This 1.60-point increase signals a shift from contraction to expansion in the manufacturing sector, marking the first expansionary reading since mid-2025. Looking ahead, this stabilization may prompt the ECB to consider pausing rate hikes, while markets could see improved sentiment in eurozone industrial growth. Updated 11/26/25