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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
6 of 7 models in band
± 4.08% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
BTC/USD's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±2.9% over 7 days, widening to ±5.7% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 70.1% (107 forecast-days · n_eff=7 independent windows) · CI 35–91% · as of 30 Oct 2026 · n_eff as of 28 Oct 2026 → full record
Across 107 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (7 independent windows), BTC/USD's expected-range band contained price 70.1% of the time (95% CI 35–91%; stated rate: 80%).
As of October 31, 2026, BTC/USD is trading at 77750.00. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this cryptocurrency generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
BTC/USD is a digital asset listed on 3 exchanges in our coverage. The BTC/USD asset closed at 77,750.00 on October 31, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.49% from the previous close of 77,368.77.
Over the past 30 days, the asset has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 8.01%, ranging between 76,325.98 and 87,220.00. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 81,119.59. The 14-day RSI stands at 36.3, in the lower part of its range. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Boj Interest Rate Decision (JP) shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, positively correlated (r = +0.99).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.46%, reflecting typical price variability for this asset. Over the past 52 weeks, BTC/USD traded between 57,717.55 (Jul 1, 2026) and 111,221.99 (Nov 2, 2025); the current price sits 30.1% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 1.46% is subdued for this asset, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. BTC/USD is currently trading 4.15% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 36.3, currently in neutral territory. For cross-confirmation, the BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JP) indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with BTC/USD (r = +0.99) and is worth watching for context.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (JP) (r=+0.99), GDP Growth Rate QoQ (MX) (r=+0.97), Manufacturing PMI (KR) (r=+0.97), CPI (CO) (r=+0.96), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (JP) (r=+0.94)
Inversely correlated: CPI (NA) (r=-0.96), Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI (AU) (r=-0.92), BBA Mortgage Rate (UK) (r=-0.91)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.Bitcoin (BTC) is the first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, operating on a decentralized peer-to-peer network with a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins. BTC/USD represents the spot exchange rate of bitcoin against the US dollar across major centralized exchanges. Bitcoin is widely viewed as a digital store of value and the reference asset for the broader cryptocurrency market.
BTC/USD is driven by macro liquidity conditions (real rates, USD strength), spot-ETF flows, the four-year halving cycle, institutional adoption news, regulatory developments (SEC actions, MiCA implementation), and broader risk-asset sentiment. Idiosyncratic catalysts include exchange failures, large on-chain transfers, and miner-economics shifts.