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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Forecast batch: 7/31/26
Market-data read
EUR/USD reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.58 / 0.27 / 0.16). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±1.0% / ±1.4% / ±1.9% (7/14/28d).
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Composite Economic Index MoM (r=+0.96), UK Unemployment Rate (r=+0.89), Factory Orders ex Transportation (r=+0.88)
Inversely correlated: Bundesanleihe Auction (r=-0.98), CPI YoY (r=-0.92), 12-Month Letras Auction (r=-0.92), JOLTs Job Quits (r=-0.91), Construction Output YoY (r=-0.90)
As of August 1, 2026, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1529. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Market-data read
The EUR/USD forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair closed at 1.1530 on August 1, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.53% from the previous close of 1.1469.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 0.79%, ranging between 1.1354 and 1.1546. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 1.1423. The 14-day RSI stands at 64.4, in the upper part of its range. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Bundesanleihe Auction shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, negatively correlated (r = -0.98).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.28%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Across the past 52 weeks, the pair has traded between 0.8560 and 1.2066, with the current price near the high end of that range.
Daily-return volatility of 0.28% is subdued for this pair, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. EUR/USD is currently trading 0.93% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 64.4, currently in neutral territory. For cross-confirmation, the Bundesanleihe Auction indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with EUR/USD (r = -0.98) and is worth watching for context.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the global foreign exchange market, representing the exchange rate between the euro (issued by the European Central Bank) and the US dollar (issued by the Federal Reserve). Daily turnover routinely exceeds $1 trillion, making EUR/USD a benchmark for FX liquidity and a primary instrument for expressing views on the relative monetary policy stances of the ECB and the Fed.
EUR/USD moves on the interest-rate differential between the eurozone and the US, relative GDP growth, inflation prints (eurozone HICP vs US CPI), ECB and FOMC policy decisions, and eurozone political risk (peripheral spreads, elections). Risk-off sentiment typically strengthens USD as a safe-haven, weakening EUR/USD.