Loading page content
Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Forecast batch: 7/31/26
Market-data read
USD/JPY screens momentum-down across horizons. The 7- and 14-day paths both track lower (ER 0.93 / 0.57) — a consistent, low-noise downtrend rather than chop. Term-structure band: ±1.9% / ±2.6% / ±3.6% (7/14/28d).
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: ISM Services Prices (r=+0.94), Consumer Confidence (r=+0.89), Bundesanleihe Auction (r=+0.89), JPY/USD Exchange Rate (r=+0.87), Balance of Trade (r=+0.86)
Inversely correlated: Producer Price Index YoY (r=-0.87), Industrial Production MoM (r=-0.84), Consumer Credit Change (r=-0.84)
As of August 1, 2026, USD/JPY is trading at 157.6566. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Market-data read
The USD/JPY forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair closed at 157.66 on August 1, 2026, reflecting a decline of 1.15% from the previous close of 159.50.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a modest downtrend with a decline of 2.24%, ranging between 156.94 and 164.09. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 162.40. The 14-day RSI stands at 21.8, in oversold territory. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, ISM Services Prices shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, positively correlated (r = +0.94).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.54%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Across the past 52 weeks, the pair has traded between 152.05 and 164.09, with the current price near the midrange of that range.
Daily-return volatility of 0.54% runs elevated for this pair, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. USD/JPY is currently trading 2.92% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 21.8, currently in oversold territory. For cross-confirmation, the ISM Services Prices indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with USD/JPY (r = +0.94) and is worth watching for context.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.