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Data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Durable Goods Orders MoM fell to 0.3% in August 2026
U.S. Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Durable Goods Orders MoM fell to 0.3% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.6% from July's 0.9% reading. The print exceeded the -0.4% consensus by 0.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.78%. Over the past 3 months, Durable Goods Orders MoM averaged 0.7%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.86 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.8
Actual: 0
Error: -0.8
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Durable Goods Orders MoM (United States) was reported at 0.3% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.4% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.7%, ranging from -4.5% to 7.9% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, down from the prior three at 1.13%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.38%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.48%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Durable Goods Orders MoM has averaged 0.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.86%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bowman Speech (Sep 28) and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Durable Goods Orders MoM - US
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About Durable Goods Orders MoM — United States
DEFINITION
Durable Goods Orders MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new orders for long-lasting goods in a given month. This includes products such as appliances, machinery, and vehicles, which are expected to last for at least three years. As a leading indicator of economic activity, Durable Goods Orders MoM provides valuable insights into consumer and business spending patterns, and can impact financial markets and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 0.3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 11.6 | 1 | 0.00 | Medium | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.015 | 4.009 | 4.01 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index | 442.5 | 442.9 | 442.40 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.30 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | US | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.35 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index YoY | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.15 | Low | |
| 13:00 | US | House Price Index MoM | 0 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | CB Consumer Confidence | 89.4 | 90 | 90.00 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Openings | 7.271 | 7.23 | 7.23 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | JOLTs Job Quits | 3.056 | 3 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index | 6.6 | 2 | 2.00 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | Dallas Fed Services Index | 4.2 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |